

It’s the shy voter effect. When politicians are unpopular, people don’t like to admit to supporting them. In most historical cases, this correlates with low turnout, so the effects on polling tend to cancel out. When Trump has been on the ballot, this correlation hasn’t held up the same way, and polling has slightly underestimated MAGA turnout.
Basically it depends on how “real” you think Trump’s unpopularity actually is. Are these people done with him, or just annoyed enough not to talk to pollsters?




It’s one of those “critique of pure reason” things. The “logic” here is informed by epidemiology, not hypotheticals or dialectics or anything like that, so those methods of discovery may not be effective in refuting such evidence. In reality it’s not as simple as legalize or don’t legalize as a binary issue - theres an entire policy framework which comes with those things.