Today is Tuesday, 10/20 and the general US Elections are in TWO WEEKS.

As it stands right now, the current Senate composition is:
47 - Democrats
51 - Republicans
2 - Independents

Looking at the numbers, we COULD see a huge shift in the Senate this year, best case scenario would be:

52 - Democrats
45 - Republicans
3 - Independents

1ST DEMOCRATIC FLIP - NC
2ND DEMOCRATIC FLIP - SC
3RD DEMOCRATIC FLIP - TX
4TH DEMOCRATIC FLIP - OH
5TH DEMOCRATIC FLIP - KS
6TH DEMOCRATIC FLIP - IA
7TH DEMOCRATIC FLIP - ME

El-Sayed wins MI, hold, not a flip!

Alaska - 66% Reporting - R+1.25
(Dan Sullivan^1 48.75%
Dan Sullivan^2 1.65%)
Mississippi - 97% Reporting - D+0.01 (43 votes!)
Nebraska - 86% Reporting - R+5

Chart Follows:

State Current Occupant Status D Cand R Cand Polling 10/18 Outcome Polling Direction
Colorado Democratic Hickenlooper Safe D John Hickelooper Mark Baisley Called D
Delaware Democratic Coons Safe D Chris Coons Michael Katz Called D
Georgia Democratic Ossoff Safe D Jon Ossoff Mike Collins Called D
Illnois Democratic Durbin Safe D Juliana Stratton Don Tracy Called D
Massachusetts Democratic Markey Safe D Ed Markey John Deaton Called D
New Hampshire Democratic Shaheen Safe D Chris Pappas John E. Sununu Called D
New Jersey Democratic Booker Safe D Cory Booker Justin Murphy Called D
New Mexico Democratic Luja Safe D Ben Ray Luján Larry Marker Called D
Oregon Democratic Merkley Safe D Jeff Merkley David Brock Smith Called D
Rhode Island Democratic Reed Safe D Jack Reed Raymond McKay Called D
Virginia Democratic Warner Safe D Mark Warner Bert Mizusawa Called D
Minnesota Democratic Smith D Peggy Flanagan Michele Tafoya Called D
North Carolina Republican Tillis D Roy Cooper Michael Whatley D FLIP Possible D Flip D Momentum since 6/1
Alabama Republican Tuberville Safe R Everett Wess Barry Moore Called R
Arkansas Republican Cotton Safe R Hallie Shoffner Tom Cotton Called R
Florida Republican Moody Safe R Angie Nixon Ashley Moody Called R
Idaho Republican Risch Safe R Withdrawn Jim Risch Called R
Kentucky Republican McConnell Safe R Charles Booker Andy Barr Called R
Louisiana Republican Cassidy Safe R Jamie Davis Julia Letlow Called R
Mississippi Republican Hyde-Smith Safe R Cindy Hyde-Smith Scott Colom R+9
Montana Republican Daines Safe R Alani Bankhead Kurt Alme Called R
Nebraska Republican Ricketts Safe R Dan Osborn (I) Pete Ricketts R+1 R Momentum since 10/1
Oklahoma Republican Armstrong Safe R N’Kiyla Thomas Kevin Hern Called R
South Dakota Republican Rounds Safe R Brian Bengs Mike Rounds Called R
Tennessee Republican Hagerty Safe R Marquita Bradshaw Bill Hagerty Called R
West Virginia Republican Capito Safe R Rachel Fetty Anderson Shelley Moore Capito Called R
Wyoming Republican Lummis Safe R James Byrd Harriet Hageman Called R
South Carolina Republican Graham R Annie Andrews Darline Graham D FLIP R Momentum since 8/29
Alaska Republican Sullivan Tossup Mary Peltola Dan Sullivan D+3 Possible D Flip D Momentum since 8/4
Iowa Republican Ernst Tossup Josh Turek Ashley Hinson D FLIP Possible D Flip D Momentum since 9/10
Kansas Republican Marshall Tossup Adam Hamilton Roger Marshall D FLIP Possible D Flip D Momentum since 10/1
Maine Republican Collins Tossup Troy Jackson Susan Collins COLLINS CONCEDES Possible D Flip D Momentum since 7/6
Michigan Democratic Peters Tossup Abdul El-Sayed Mike Rogers Called D Possible R Flip D Momentum since 8/17
Ohio Republican Husted Tossup Sherrod Brown Jon Husted D FLIP Possible D Flip D Momentum since 6/2
Texas Republican Cornyn Tossup James Talarico Ken Paxton D FLIP Possible D Flip D Momentum since 6/1
  • spongebue@lemmy.world
    7·
    14 days ago

    I’ve been using Pollsmax. It’s pretty good. Of course after every election I am reminded that there will always be surprises and I need to stop treating these sites as if they were a crystal ball

    • NekoKoneko@lemmy.world
      6·
      14 days ago

      Very interesting, thanks. Boy, the difference between their polling and forecast is pretty stark. They are giving huge incumbency advantages to existing GOP senate seats, for example. Polling is D53-R47, and forecast is D48-R52, a 5-seat chamber control swing.

      I don’t know if that makes them more or less credible. GOP has outperformed in the past, and I’m very wary of vibes-based expectations, but Maine for example has Collins winning despite (1) their own average polling showing Jackson up by 2.7%, and three of four recent polls by 4%; (2) the last Senate seat going democratic; (3) the last presidential election going democratic; (4) the last governorship going democratic.

      Makes it it feel like their forecasting formula is putting a pretty big thumb on the scale, but then again, every time I’ve allowed myself optimism in the last 10 years of elections, I’ve been disappointed.

      • jordanlund@lemmy.worldOPM
        3·
        14 days ago

        I was hearing about a South Carolina poll today predicting that 30% of the black vote is going to Darline Graham, which just seems absurd to me…

        • NekoKoneko@lemmy.world
          5·
          14 days ago

          Yeah, that would be something.

          I think the forecasts are useful thought experiments, but it seems if you dig deep enough in the methodologies, eventually you always get to a priori premises and assumptions that can’t be supported except by intuition. It would be helpful for there to be a graphic map of those methodologies with “here be dragons” to denote when we’ve stopped using data. In any case, I’m holding onto some hope for this election despite those forecasts, but guarding it like a caveman would a fire.