Democrats are currently leading Republicans in the RealClearPolling generic congressional average

A blue wave may not be as certain as some polls have predicted, experts warn ahead of Election Day, noting forecasts may be skewed because Trump supporters are notoriously difficult to reach, according to a report.

While current polls paint a positive picture for Democrats ahead of the midterms this November 3 — some pollsters are questioning whether that number may be inflated due to supporters of President Donald Trump being difficult to reach by pollsters, Axios reported.

Polls previously underestimated Trump’s support during the presidential races in 2016, 2020 and 2024. Even though midterm polling is typically more accurate, some still underestimated Republican support in 2022, Scott Keeter, senior survey adviser at Pew Research Center, told Axios.

  • givesomefucks@lemmy.world
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    2 days ago

    Cook Political Report forecasts Democrats will gain nine to 19 seats in the House, which would give the party a narrow majority. In the Senate, Cook predicts a potential Democratic net gain of two to six seats. Democrats would need four seats to take control of the chamber.

    The current DNC chair is gonna run a fair presidential primary in less than two years…

    No matter what happens the neoliberals will say midterms could have been better and Martin needs to resign. Because neoliberals have no chance in hell of winning a fair primary.

    And if we get a progressive in 2028 into the White House, they pick the next DNC chair in 2029.

    We’re on the cusp of some real FDR shit, but neoliberals (as always) will do anything including helping Republicans to stop it.

    • krashmo@lemmy.world
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      2 days ago

      You’ve been saying this so often and for so long that I’m really curious to see how you’re going to try and spin it when the DNC fucks over progressives like they always do. Ken Martin is like the second coming of Jesus to you for some reason.

      • freddydunningkruger@lemmy.world
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        2 days ago

        I bet you’ve never once looked up a bill and checked out the votes to see how Republicans blocked so many of them because the Democrats didn’t have enough of a voting majority.

        Do you know why the Public Option was removed from the Affordable Care Act? Because Democrats needed 60 votes, and there were only 58 Democrats elected to the Senate, with 2 Independents voting with them… 60 exactly - this gave extraordinary power to any Democrat who was against the public option (Joe Lieberman and 5 others). If 6 or more extra Democrats had been elected, the Lieberman 6 votes would have had no power. Or if just 6 Republicans out of the 40 had voted with the Democrats. Ha.

        And in the end, I always see people blaming the Democrats, not the Republicans. Because nobody looks at the actual bills and how they are gutted or defeated because the people won’t elect enough Dems to counter the Rep opposition. Shrug.

        • krashmo@lemmy.world
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          2 days ago

          None of that is news to anyone paying attention. Obviously Republicans are terrible but if you’re going to hold Democrats up as our saviors then they need to actually save the day once in a while.

          Republicans have faced the same exact power imbalance you described many times over the years and yet they have no trouble getting their legislative agenda passed. Why is that? Answer that question honestly and you’ll know exactly why people blame Democrats for shit Republicans do.

          • edible_funk@lemmy.world
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            18 hours ago

            Because they vote party lines as a monolith and the Dems don’t, which is what the person you’re replying to said but you’re too both sides ignorant to hear it. You’re specifically stating right here that you don’t understand how legislation works or the government is intended to function at a fundamental level. Your opinion on things you’re currently ignorant about is about as valuable as an asshole on an elbow.

      • StabbingSky@lemmy.zip
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        2 days ago

        I guess that must be why progressive candidates pushed out a bunch of liberal incumbents in the primaries.

        • freddydunningkruger@lemmy.world
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          2 days ago

          Progressive taxation. Affordable Universal Healthcare. Public Infrastructure and Education. Reproductive rights for women. Voting rights. Providing a social safety net. Climate change. Regulating industrial pollution. Firearms regulation. Need any more?

          • Boomer Humor Doomergod@lemmy.world
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            2 days ago

            The differences are in implementation, not in goals.

            Take affordable universal health care for instance. The progressive position is Medicare for All. The Liberal position is taxing and regulating health insurance companies to force them to cover everyone, and force everyone to buy health insurance.

            • edible_funk@lemmy.world
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              18 hours ago

              Got introduced legislation to back up your assertions here or we just making shit the fuck up?

          • Goodeye8@piefed.social
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            2 days ago

            And can you name some progressive policies That are being pushed but people aren’t receptive to?

            • agamemnonymous@sh.itjust.works
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              2 days ago

              Depends on how you define “pushed” and “people”. There aren’t really enough progressive politicians to push any policies, and there are plenty of policies that have some support, but not widespread support. Granted, they’re typically policies that would provide widespread benefit, but have been so twisted by propaganda that the people vote against their own interests.

              “Free” healthcare and college are good examples, where people are unreceptive because they overestimate the cost and underestimate the cost of the present system.

              • Goodeye8@piefed.social
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                1 day ago

                Which doesn’t mean those policies aren’t popular. They’ve simply been propagandized to be “fairy tales”. The opposition can’t argue over the policy itself because the policy is popular so they have to argue around it. That’s where you get these arguments that something is too expensive to implement or it’s going to get exploited by “the wrong people” and such. But it doesn’t make those policies unpopular. El-sayed is a great example because he runs on progressive policies and is very popular in his state. If the policies by nature were unpopular he wouldn’t be a popular candidate. Nobody gave a shit that Mike Rogers kept saying El-Sayeds policies are too expensive because El-Sayed cuts through that bullshit to keep people focused on what the policy actually is.

                And if we go back to those popular “liberal” policies at least half of them are also progressive policies and some of them I wouldn’t even consider liberal, such as “Public Infrastructure and Education”. Modern American liberalism is against state socialism and state controlled public use of anything is technically state socialism. Liberals have simply adopted parts of progressive policies because they’re so popular not adopting them would be stupid.

                • agamemnonymous@sh.itjust.works
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                  12 hours ago

                  That’s where you get these arguments that something is too expensive to implement or it’s going to get exploited by “the wrong people” and such. But it doesn’t make those policies unpopular.

                  Popularity isn’t about anything other than the proportion of people in favor. If the majority of people believe the empty arguments around the policy, it will be unpopular.

                  The trickiest part of politics is dealing with the fact that people are mostly uninformed and uninterested, and grappling with the foolishness of the average citizen.

                  • Goodeye8@piefed.social
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                    1 day ago

                    The trickiest post of politics is dealing with the fact that people are mostly uninformed and uninterested, and grappling with the foolishness of the average citizen.

                    Which is why the popularity of a policy should be looked through the lens of do people actually support the idea behind the policy instead of what the policy is called. For example Medicare is viewed favorably among the republicans but when you turn around and start asking about government health coverage suddenly the support flips in the other way and republicans hate the idea. Except that’s pretty much what medicare is.

                    You can’t view popularity of a policy on a superficial level because on a superficial level the popularity swings whatever way depending on the very specific phrasing of the question. You have to get to the core of policy and then view the popularity of the core idea to understand the popularity of a policy. Because if the policy at its core is popular you can find support for it by cutting through the bullshit, but if the policy is unpopular no amount of cutting through the bullshit will get you support. You have to actually spin bullshit to make an unpopular policy popular and you can only do that when there’s nobody on the other side calling it out. Going back to the El-Sayed and Rogers example, the reason their debate was so one-sided is because El-Sayed was on the side of popular policies and could easily present them as they are. And Rogers couldn’t do anything because every time he tried to bullshit something he got called out.

          • bthest@lemmy.world
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            2 days ago

            Affordable lol. Yeah a very popular word. Without that word Universal Healthcare just tanks with the people doesn’t it? Gotta have it.

            People love it when the things they need to live are… with in reach [pause for massive applause]

            Or even maybe… realistically obtainable for most? [pause for wild deafening screams of adoration]